Macro Dashboard
Inflation, growth, liquidity, rates, commodities and global data in one place — each series paired with our reading of how it transmits into asset prices.
As of 2026-09-01 · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Headline CPI sets the political and household perception of inflation. Above roughly 3% the Fed loses room to cut regardless of growth, which compresses equity multiples and supports real assets. Falling headline with sticky core usually means energy is doing the work, not disinflation.
Awaiting data · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Core strips food and energy and is the series the Fed actually reacts to. Shelter and services keep it sticky long after goods deflate, so a core print that refuses to fall below ~3% is the single biggest constraint on a rate-cutting cycle.
Awaiting data · BEA via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
PCE is the Fed's official target measure and typically runs below CPI because it adjusts for substitution. Divergence between CPI and PCE tells you how much of the inflation story is consumer behaviour versus genuine price pressure.
As of 2026-08-01 · BEA via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The Fed's 2% target is defined on this series. Every 0.1pp of surprise here moves front-end rates, the dollar and long-duration equities more than almost any other monthly data point.
Awaiting data · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Producer prices lead consumer prices by roughly two to three quarters. Rising PPI with flat CPI means margin compression ahead for corporates; falling PPI is the earliest credible signal that disinflation is real.
As of 2026-09-01 · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Wage growth above roughly 3.5% is inconsistent with 2% inflation unless productivity accelerates. This is the series that decides whether inflation becomes structural or stays a supply-shock story.
As of 2026-04-01 · BEA via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Real growth is the denominator of every valuation argument. Growth above trend with falling inflation is the ideal backdrop for risk assets; growth above trend with rising inflation forces the Fed to break something.
Awaiting data · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The cleanest monthly read on the manufacturing cycle and the best available proxy for ISM direction. Industrial output drives physical commodity demand — copper, energy and freight follow this series, not the S&P 500.
As of 2026-09-01 · Census via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Two-thirds of US GDP is consumption. Nominal retail sales growing slower than CPI means real demand is contracting even when the headline looks positive — an early warning the market usually ignores for a quarter.
As of 2026-09-01 · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Unemployment rises slowly, then all at once. A half-point rise off the cycle low has historically been enough to confirm recession — and it is the trigger that forces the Fed to cut faster than the market prices.
As of 2026-09-01 · BLS via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Payroll momentum, not the level, is what matters. Sub-100k monthly job creation with a stable participation rate is stall speed for the US economy and typically precedes a repricing of the front end.
As of 2026-10-10 · DOL via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The highest-frequency labour signal available. Claims sustainably above ~260k have marked the start of every genuine labour-market crack; below 220k the consumer stays resilient and the Fed stays patient.
As of 2026-09-30 · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Balance-sheet direction sets the tide for risk assets. Quantitative tightening drains reserves and quietly raises the cost of leverage — most drawdowns since 2018 have coincided with the steepest weeks of balance-sheet decline.
As of 2026-08-01 · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Money-supply growth leads nominal activity and inflation by roughly 12 to 18 months. Re-accelerating M2 after a contraction is historically the earliest signal that nominal assets — commodities, hard assets, equities — are about to work again.
Awaiting data · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
When Treasury rebuilds its cash balance it pulls liquidity out of the banking system; when it spends it down, liquidity floods back. Around debt-ceiling resolutions this single account can dominate short-term risk-asset performance.
As of 2026-09-28 · NY Fed via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The RRP facility has been the shock absorber for quantitative tightening. With it near empty, further balance-sheet reduction comes straight out of bank reserves — the point at which funding stress becomes a market event rather than a plumbing detail.
Awaiting data · Chicago Fed via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Negative readings mean conditions are looser than average. Easy conditions while inflation is above target is precisely what keeps policy restrictive for longer — the market easing on its own does the Fed's job in reverse.
As of 2026-10-15 · ICE BofA via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Credit leads equity. Spreads below 3% price no default cycle at all and leave no cushion for disappointment; a move through 5% has historically front-run equity drawdowns by weeks.
As of 2026-10-15 · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The anchor for every discount rate in the system. What matters is the policy rate minus core inflation — the real policy rate — because that, not the headline level, determines how restrictive the Fed actually is.
As of 2026-10-14 · US Treasury via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The 2Y is the market's vote on Fed policy over the next two years. When it falls well below the funds rate, the market is demanding cuts — and the Fed has historically delivered rather than fight it.
As of 2026-10-15 · US Treasury via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Higher long-term yields raise the discount rate applied to long-duration assets and pressure high-duration equities, growth stocks and anything valued on distant cash flows. The 10Y is the global cost of capital — when it moves, everything reprices.
As of 2026-10-14 · US Treasury via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The long bond prices fiscal credibility, not growth. A 30Y rising while the Fed cuts is a term-premium event — the market charging more to fund deficits — and it is bullish gold and bearish long-duration equity simultaneously.
As of 2026-10-16 · US Treasury via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Inversion warns; the re-steepening from inversion is the recession signal that actually matters. Bull steepening — the 2Y falling faster than the 10Y — has preceded every post-1990 US recession by a matter of months.
Awaiting data · US Treasury via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The single most important variable for gold, and the truest measure of monetary restriction. Real yields above ~2% are a genuine headwind for non-yielding assets; gold rallying despite high real yields signals the marginal buyer is a central bank, not a rate trader.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Oil is the transmission mechanism from geopolitics into inflation. A sustained $20 move feeds through to headline CPI within two quarters and can single-handedly reverse a central-bank easing cycle.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Gas sets marginal electricity costs and therefore industrial competitiveness — and, increasingly, the economics of AI data centres. Regional spreads between Henry Hub, TTF and JKM are where the energy-security trade lives.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Copper reads global industrial activity better than any survey, and structurally it is now an electrification and grid-capex story. Copper strength alongside weak Chinese property is the signal that the demand driver has permanently changed.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Gold is a monetary asset, not a commodity. Central-bank buying, fiscal deficits and reserve diversification now matter more than real yields or ETF flows — which is why it has decoupled from its historical rate sensitivity.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Half monetary metal, half industrial input to solar and electronics. Silver outperforming gold late in a precious-metals cycle is a classic signal of speculative broadening — and of a tightening physical market.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Nuclear is the only scalable, dispatchable, low-carbon answer to AI-driven power demand. Supply is concentrated, contracting cycles are long, and utilities are price-insensitive buyers — the classic setup for a structural bull market.
As of 2026-10-16 · Yahoo Finance
Infy Macro interpretation
Food prices are the fastest route from commodity markets to political instability in emerging economies. Grain spikes show up in EM headline inflation within a quarter and force central banks to tighten into weakness.
Awaiting data · Eurostat via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Euro-area inflation decides the ECB's path and therefore the EUR/USD rate differential. Europe cutting ahead of the Fed strengthens the dollar, tightens global financial conditions and pressures emerging-market assets.
Awaiting data · OECD via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
Japan was the world's funding currency for two decades. Every step away from zero raises the cost of the global carry trade and risks repatriation flows out of US assets — the most underpriced systemic risk in markets.
Awaiting data · OECD via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
JGB yields are the anchor of global duration. As domestic Japanese yields rise, Japanese institutions stop funding US and European bond markets — pushing term premia higher everywhere without a single Fed decision.
As of 2026-10-09 · Federal Reserve via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The dollar is the world's financial conditions index. A stronger dollar tightens conditions for every borrower outside the US, drains emerging-market liquidity and is a headwind for commodities priced in USD.
Awaiting data · Census via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The monthly deficit is the scoreboard for tariffs, supply-chain relocation and dollar recycling. A shrinking deficit means less Chinese demand for Treasuries at the margin — a slow, structural pressure on long-end US yields.
Awaiting data · Census via FRED
Infy Macro interpretation
The best available high-frequency read on Chinese export momentum and the real-world impact of tariffs. Collapsing volumes signal both Chinese industrial weakness and a coming re-rating of goods inflation in the US.
Data is sourced from FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) and public market feeds, and refreshes automatically. Year-over-year series are calculated from the underlying index levels. Interpretations are the views of Infy Macro and are provided for informational purposes only — they are not investment advice. For portfolio discussions, write to info@infymacro.com.